For anyone who follows college basketball, this is the best time of year. It’s Christmas, Mardi Gras and the Fourth of July all wrapped up into one. It’s tournament time!
There are lots of reasons why the tournament is so much fun. For one, it’s the time when anything can happen. Even teams who had terrible seasons can get on a roll, win their conference tournament and find a spot in the big dance. And once you’re there, anything can happen. Just ask George Mason, whose improbably 2006 Final Four run as an 11 seed had all of America cheering for them. Then there the are countless stories of triumph and heartbreak, from a freshman Michael Jordan hitting a game-winner in 1982 to give North Carolina the title over Georgetown, to Christian Laettner’s last second heroic shot against Kentucky in 1992. And who can forget coach’s son Bryce Drew’s three-pointer to lift Valpo over Ole Miss in ‘98? These stories are a big part of what makes this the greatest time of year for sports fans.
Another reason sports fans love this time of year is the endless matchup discussions. Turn on any sports program in the country, or eavesdrop on some basketball fans, and you’re sure to hear a spirited discussion of which team is better and why. You’ll hear theories on why Duke’s long-range shooting makes them the team to beat, or how Kentucky would struggle against Syracuse’s zone. While these are all interesting conversations, for Kansas fans, the real comparison of interest (apart from a matchup with Calipari’s squad) is with the last Jayhawk team to win it all, the 2007-2008 team.
How would this year’s team stack up in a face-off against that team? At first glance, many Jayhawk fans would tell you, despite the success of this year’s team, they’re not as good as the 2008 championship squad. Position for position, it seems like the 2008 team seems to have this team beat. But how much of that is reality, and how much is the mythology of a championship team?
First of all, it may surprise some Kansas fans to learn that the 2010 squad goes deeper than their 2008 counterparts. While the 2008 team is viewed as one of the deepest in the country, many Kansas fans have lamented a perceived lack of depth on this year’s team. In actuality, Head Coach Bill Self has six players (Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Xavier Henry, Marcus Morris, Tyshawn Taylor and Brady Morningstar) averaging 22+ minutes per game this year, with two more (Tyrell Reed and Markieff Morris) averaging 15+. In comparison, the 2008 team had six players averaging more than 23 minutes (Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Russell Robinson, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Collins), with only Sasha Kaun averaging more than 15 off the bench. The next player off the bench, believe it or not, was actually Rodrick Stewart, who averaged more than 11 minutes per game. It may seem counter-intuitive, but the 2010 team has had more players playing significant minutes. What does this mean? Maybe nothing, or maybe it means that key players will be a little fresher down the stretch.
Of course the main difference between the teams, in many fans’ eyes, seems to be the raw talent. The 2008 team was stacked across the board, and incredibly balanced, in a way rarely seen in college sports. On a team featuring seven NBA draft pick (including the yet-undrafted Aldrich and Collins), they could hurt opponents from any position at any time. On a team whose leading scorer, Brandon Rush, averaged only 13.3 points, there were seven players averaging 7 or more points per game.
While the 2010 isn’t exactly devoid of balance or athleticism, it seems more reliant upon key players. Aldrich and Collins play much larger roles than any one player ever did for the 2008 champions. Aside from setting tempo and providing intensity, those two players create many scoring opportunities for their teammates. At times, when either Collins or Aldrich has been cold (or in Aldrich’s case, not getting enough touches), the Jayhawks have struggled to score. Of late, though, this has been negated by consistency of Xavier Henry on the wing and the emergence of Marcus Morris as a scorer. Though these four players are averaging more than 11 points per game, there is a sharp drop-off in production after them, with the next highest scorers being Markieff Morris at 6.55 points per game, and then Reed and Morningstar at 4.61 and 4.27 respectively.
While the Jayhawks still have more scorers than almost anyone in the country (with the exception of Kentucky and perhaps Duke), and Bill Self’s trademark tough defense will keep KU in any game, this team is more susceptible to the ill-effects of a bad shooting night than was the 2008 team. But aside from this apparent chink in the armor, the Jayhawks have managed to hold onto the #1 ranking for most of this season. This is probably the reason why they match up so well with their 2008 counterparts, statistically speaking.
According to statsheets.com, in 2008, Kansas was 26-3 heading into the Big 12 Tournament, averaging 80.5 points per game, to go along with 38.7 rebounds (12.1 on the offensive end), and 18 assists. The 2010 Jayhawks are averaging 82.2, with 40.6 boards (13.2 offensive) and 17.1 assists. Additionally, this year’s team shoots slightly better from long range, at 40.4% to 39.7% from behind the arc, and averages fewer turnovers, 12.8 to 13.2.
The 2008 championship team was better from the charity stripe (70.2% to 69.7%) and had a better assist-to-turnover ratio (1.4 to 1.33), but the 2010 team averages more blocks (6.4 to 5.9) and fewer turnovers (12.8 to 13.2). Overall the statistics are amazingly consistent, particularly when considering the huge personnel changes that have occurred in the last two seasons. This seems to indicate one key point: Bill Self’s teams are consistently good.
Aside from the statistical comparisons, there are several other parallels between these teams. Like the 2008 team, the 2010 team has veteran senior leadership, a huge inside presence and a dangerous wing player. Additionally, like their predecessor, they are a defensive-minded squad, with quick hands who can also get out and run the break.
For the superstitious, both teams had a loss late in conference play at Oklahoma State which seemed to refocus the team. Also, it seems like this team is a lock for a number one seed, which is the spot from which the last championship run began.
A national championship is by no means a given, but most Kansas fans will look favorably at this team come the Big Dance, especially when comparing them to the last Jayhawks to win it all.
