TheShiver.com welcomes Nick Bates to the TheShiver.com writing team. Nick has a wealth of experience covering and writing about multiple sports, including football. Nick starts off with his look at the Big 12 north this coming football season and will have his take on the south next week.
Let’s call the Big XII North what it is. It’s a whipping boy for the Big 12 South Champ every year to have a nice warm up game before beginning a month long practice session for the BCS game they are heading to. The South is 9-4 in the title game, has won 5 straight and has outscored the teams from the North 233-51 in those last five contests (2004-2008).
Let that sink in a minute.
In addition, in those five games the North has combined for only 6 touchdowns. Six! Oklahoma has scored 6 touchdowns in the Title game twice (2004 and 2008) and Texas did it once (2005). The bottom line is the North Champion walks the green mile the first week in December every year, and it does not look to be changing anytime soon.
Now, with all optimism squelched, let’s get down to business.
Who will make the annual pilgrimage in 2009 to get their heads handed to them by Oklahoma or Texas this year from the North?
Missouri has had two straight cracks at it and got thumped to the combined tune of 100-38. That is not nearly as bad as the wood-shedding that was bequeathed upon Colorado in 2004 and 2005. The Sooners and the Longhorns combined for 112-6 two-year tail kicking that the Buffaloes have yet to recover from.
Who can forget the snooze fest of 2006 when Oklahoma dispatched Nebraska 21-7? They did so at arm’s length– like an older brother who holds back a charging younger brother by placing his palm on the top of his head, all-the-while looking the other way not even once fearing what the consequences of not looking might be (it also helps when the opposing coach was Bill Callahan).
2003 was the exception to the rule. Kansas State pulled a shocker in beating the too quickly anointed “Best Team of All Time” Oklahoma Sooners by 4 touchdowns. This was Bill Synder’s crowning achievement and served as a nice send off for “Grandpa.” (Update: Not only did Bill Snyder stay around through the 2005 season, he is actually making the Hall of Fame wait to return to the sidelines and take care of some unfinished business).
The Kansas Jayhawks seem to be everyone’s number two in the North, but why would anybody doubt Reesing magic? Especially in his senior year? This story could make Rudy look tame in comparison. They should be favored, but people may be leery after naming them the next “big thing” in college football last year, only to have the ‘Hawks fall to 7-5 before their bowl victory over Minnesota. Many were skeptical if a 6-6 Kansas team would even be in a bowl if they were to lose to Missouri-thanks to some late-game heroics by Todd (T.O. Double Trouble/Toddy Ballgame) Reesing and his receiving corps, KU fans can look back on 2008 fondly.
The 2009 Jayhawks should have a Ferrari of an offense with a very confident Reesing in the driver’s seat. Last season we saw Reesing flinging passes to Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier, handing the ball off to a leaping Jake Sharp and absorbing hits by guys twice his size, repositioning himself in the pocket and firing strikes down the field. With all of that set to return, plus another off-season of experience, Jayhawks’ coach Mark Mangino should be shooting for a historic season in Lawrence.
The offensive line will be a concern for the coaching staff in 2009. Sophomore Jeff Spikes will return for his second season at tackle and looks to be paired with redshirt freshman Tanner Hawkinson. Hawkinson has the height (6’6″) you want at tackle but lacks the weight (listed at 280). KU will struggle replacing the interior of their line from 2008, but will look to count on Sophomore Jeremiah Hatch who moves to center after showing some good signs at tackle last season. Protecting Reesing will be a key if the Jayhawks are to compete for the North.
However, the biggest question will be on the defensive side of the ball. The 2008 squad finished in the triple digits (114) in pass defense and must improve to compete in the pass-lovin’ Big 12. (There are only 119 teams in Division 1, or whatever name it’s called now that was created to keep the BCS somewhat “relevant,” so anything lower than about 50 is not very good). This season they are looking to run a 4-2-5 defense that will hopefully slow the spread offenses in the league.
Last year’s triple threat of James Holt, Joe Mortensen and Mike Rivera when healthy (which didn’t happen last year) were good and will be missed, but that style of defense seems to be gone for the Jayhawks. Three linebackers will look to fill two spots. Juco All-American Vernon Brooks announced in June that he is coming to KU and will push Arist Wright and running back convert Angus Quigley for playing time. All accounts of Davis say that he is a beast, but KU fans heard the same thing about Jocques Crawford when he predicted that he would tear up the Big XII rushing for 2,000 yards– only to struggle to get 232 yards on 62 carries for the season. If KU can get some solid coverage from Justin Thornton, Daymond Patterson, Chris Harris, Phillip Strozier and Darrell Stuckey the sky is the limit for the 2009 Jayhawks.
The schedule doesn’t look all that good for the Hawks in 2009. Road games in El Paso, Austin and Lubbock along with trips to Manhattan and Boulder will prove to be tough. The Jayhawks will need to hold serve at home in games against either Nebraska or Oklahoma, get a win at Arrowhead, and grab two of the conference road games to finish atop the North.
Prediction: Kansas 9-3 (5-3) First
The popular choice for 2009 is Nebraska. Why? Well, as we all know the “Big Red” is back in a big way with Bo Pelini at the helm, and their schedule sets up favorably-or as favorable as a Big XII North team’s schedule can. They miss Texas and Oklahoma State this year, but get Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home. They travel to Missouri and Kansas as well as two tough road games against Colorado and Baylor.
The Huskers have the best defender in the league, if not the nation, Ndamukong Suh. (Jayhawkfans should be familiar with him-he can do a little of everything and pretty much single-handedly won the game in Lincoln last year.) With him anchoring the line, and an extra year of tutelage from Pelini for the rest of the defense, they should be a top unit, especially if they get any contribution from their linebackers.
The chink in the Nebraska armor may be on the offensive side of the ball-especially in the passing game. Joe Ganz is gone and will be replaced by Zac Lee. Lee is a polarizing character when people talk about him. Some say he will keep things rolling forward at Nebraska, but some say he relies on his legs too often and not his strong arm. No matter what he is able to do in 2009, he will have a hard time living up to the kind of season Ganz turned in last year. Lee will also have the unfortunate task of throwing to an inexperienced receiving corps who lost two of Ganz’s top targets due to graduation.
The strongest part of the Nebraska team is the backfield. Roy Helu Jr. and Quentin Castille will carry the load for the ‘Skers. Helu Jr. racked up 3 100-yard + games in the last four games of the season last year and Castille lit up Clemson in the Gator Bowl, going for 145 total yards. Bothrunners had to give up carries to Marlon Lucky in 2008-a former 1,000 yard rusher. With Lucky gone these two could put up some numbers that haven’t been seen in Lincoln since Tom Osborne was patrolling the sideline.
Prediction: Nebraska 8-4 (5-3) Second
Missouri is the wildcard in the North this season. Gone are Daniel, Coffman, Saunders, Maclin, Hood and Moore as well as a host of other contributors from the team that has won the North the past two seasons. Each side of the ball returns an anchor-linebacker Sean Witherspoon on defense and running back Derrick Washington on offense, but little experience surrounds them.
What this team will lack in experience they hope to hide with athleticism of the recruits Coach Gary Pinkel has brought in over the past couple of years.
While Washington will shoulder a big load out of the backfield, youngster Blaine Gabbert will be in charge of the offense-and will be forced to show off some of the abilities he displayed in high school. Barring a major change in camp, Gabbert will be named the starter and hold the reins of one of the most explosive offensive systems in the nation, but as we have seen in recent years with top recruited quarterbacks (Terrelle Pryor at Ohio State and Jimmy Clausen at Notre Dame) it may take awhile to get used to the speed in the college game. If Gabbert produces at a high level the tigers will be dangerous.
The defense will have to play with only nine players to do worse than they did last year. While they were OK against the run (36th) and getting to the QB (5thin the Big XII) they stunk against the pass. Remember when I mentioned that KU was awful against the pass? Well, Mizzou finished three spots behind them. Ask Reesing to Meier about how bad their secondary is! If they don’t get the defensive backfield shaped up, Witherspoon can have an All-American season and it will not even matter.
Prediction: Missouri 7-5 (4-4) Third
As Coach Dan Hawkins once pointed out in a Colorado Buffaloes off-season press conference, “IT’S DIVISION ONE FOOOTBALL! IT’S THE BIIIIG TWEEELVE! IT AIN”T INTRAMURALS!” He is so right, and it is time for his son to start playing like it if Colorado wants to contend this year. Cody Hawkins is the key to the Big XII North. He has played in the most games at quarterback in the North behind Reesing and has done diddly squat in his time.
If (Cody) Hawkins can salvage his job (and his father’s) it is going to take a HUGE leap by him in accuracy, arm strength, on field awareness and the development of an offensive line to keep him upright-the Buffs can be a factor in the division.
Colorado, if they are to get to the 10-win mark as (Dan) Hawkins has demanded, has to have everything go perfectly. The two units on the field they have few concerns about are the running backs and linebackers. Sophomore Darrell Scott is poised to live up to his blue-chip status after a disappointing freshman season where he was banged up and a little out of shape. Reports show Scott is ready to roll (in shape) this season which will be a relief to Buff fans. They also have a stable of linebackers that will be the envy of the division-though linebackers aren’t coveted as much against the spread offenses as they once were.
All in all, Colorado has their sights set a little high and will be a tough battle for most teams, but they will not get to where they want to be this year.
Prediction: Colorado 6-6 (3-5) Fourth
Paul Rhoads is stepping in as coach of the dreadful Iowa State Cyclones after Gene Chizik left for greener grass after the 2008 season. The native Iowan has his work cut out for him if he wants to compete for wins in this conference.
If you need an idea of what the Cyclones are capable of on offense just think back to the Kansas game last year. The Cyclones led by quarterback Austen Arnaud took, a 20-0 lead into the locker room at halftime, but if you want to know what the Cyclones are capable of as a team, just look at the third quarter of that game. Kansas took the lead 21-20 before the fourth quarter had started. The Jayhawks, leading 35-33 late in the game, still gave opportunities to ISU to win the game, but Arnaud was unable to throw a completion on four straight plays turning the ball over on downs.
If ISU wants to do anything this season they will have to remain consistent and improve on defense-they finished 112th in the nation and 10th in the Big XII.
Running back Alexander Robinson-who rushed for over 700 yards as a sophomore in 2008-will be running behind an offensive line that was solid last year and are now a year older.
The hard part of Rhoads’ job will be shoring up the abysmal defense and figuring out a way for his defensive line to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks (they ranked near the bottom of the nation in sacks in 2008). Their leading tackler, safety, James Smith returns but needs help in order for the ‘Clones to compete.
Prediction: Iowa State 3-9 (1-7) Fifth
Bill Snyder has been taken out of the moth balls to come back (though he never really left) and save the fledging Kansas State football program roam the sidelines at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The dust has not even settled from the assassination of Ron “Scary Smart” Prince at the hands of Snyder, and the high stepping of Josh Freeman to the NFL (much to the chagrin of most Big XII fans)-and ‘Staters are thinking that they are going to be relevant again.
The bad news for those wearing purple shaded glasses is that the cupboard is all but bare. Not 1989 bare, but still pretty bare (think 2005 bare when Snyder had quit recruiting). The major difference this time around is that other schools in the North are trying. Missouri and Kansas are good teams, well coached and do not have a negative image problem anymore. Sure, Nebraska has taken a step back from winning three titles in a decade, but they are still a formidable opponent.
Snyder was also able to take advantage of a seldom used idea of skimming the best talent from the Juco ranks in the 90′s, but partly due to his successes with that MO, everyone does it now. It will make for quite the story if he is able to get the program back to a regular bowl team.
One bright spot is the return of 1,000 yard receiver Brandon Banks. The 5-foot-7 Banks, a senior, is a speedster (sub 4.3 40 yard dash) who caught nine touchdowns and had a kick return TD in 2008. If presumptive quarterback Carson Coffman can find Banks as a deep-threat and look to sure-handed tight end Jeron Mustrud in third-down situations, the Wildcats may be able to string some drives together in the meat of their schedule.
Many think that Kansas State will improve on the defensive side of the ball with Snyder’s presence on the sideline and a wave of a magic wand, even know the Big XII is the most prolific offensive league in college football. They have very few playmakers on D and gave up a staggering 479 yards a game in 2008, good for third-to-last in the NCAA. It will take more than a coaching change for the defense to improve enough to help an almost punch-less offense compete in the high scoring Big XII.
The schedule is the one positive mark in Kansas State’s corner (surprised?). They have games against juggernauts UMASS, Louisiana Lafayette and Tennessee Tech in the non-con along with a road game against UCLA. These match-ups, with the exception of the game against the Bruins, should allow the Wildcats to build their confidence before heading into a tough conference schedule that has them traveling to Lincoln, Norman and Lubbock, while hosting games against Kansas and Missouri.
Prediction: 4-8 (1-7) Sixth
Big XII North Pivotal Games:
Oct. 8th Nebraska @ Missouri
Oct. 17th Missouri @ Oklahoma State
Oct. 24th Texas @ Missouri
Oct. 31st Nebraska @ Baylor
Oct. 31st Kansas @ Texas Tech
Nov. 7th Oklahoma @ Nebraska
Nov. 14th Nebraska @ Kansas
Nov. 21st Kansas @ Texas
Nov. 28th Missouri @ Kansas (Arrowhead)
