Nick Bates brought you a look at the Big 12 North last week and now he breaks down the Big 12 south.
For a conference to have 4 teams in the top 16 in the rankings is quite a feat.
For a division to lay claim to 4 teams in the top 16 is unheard of, but that is exactly what the Big XII South was able to do in the final poll as last season closed.
Seemingly Texas Tech lost too much talent from one year ago to have high expectations for 2009, but Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas all look to be included in the top 10 at the start of the season and all three are legitimate BCS Title contenders. With an improving Baylor squad added to the mix, the Big XII South will be the best division in football once again.
Despite having so much talent and high hopes, there are holes and big question marks that need to be addressed if anyone from the South wants to challenge Florida and USC for the National Championship.
Let’s start with Texas A&M because they have no chance to compete in the South. Second-year coach Mike Sherman is in a tough spot. He has had a chance to recruit behind the rotting corpse of a football program that Dennis Franchione left behind two years ago improving the overall talent level-but they aren’t coming back to life quite yet.
Returning quarterback Jerrod Johnson (21 touchdowns in 2008)should be a solid signal caller with a lot of potential, but there has been some speculation that Sherman will push for last year’s leading receiver Ryan Tannehill to compete for the starting job under center. Tannehill is a highly skilled athlete and will need to be on the field in one way or another for the Aggies to be at their best-it may still be at receiver where they will need him most. No matter who plays QB, they will be focusing their attention on stud receiver Jeff Fuller. As a freshman Fuller pulled down 50 receptions for 630 yards and 9 touchdowns, but did not have a 100-yard game. Look for that to change in 2009 as the 6’4″ gazelle has had an offseason to improve. The sky is the limit for Fuller.
Last year the Aggies were among the worst rushing teams (114th) and will only improve that statistic if they get consistent line play. They will need to block for sophomore Cyrus Gray and keep defenders off of the quarterback to compete in the Big XII-don’t hold your breath Aggie fans.
On the defensive side of the ball Texas A&M only returns 5 starters from a unit that was very limited in 2008 and is going to have to improve against the run to try to become bowl eligible.
Prediction: Texas A&M 4-8 (1-7) Sixth
Mike Leach flirted with leaving Texas Tech for greener pastures after a solid 2008 season that ended with a loss in the Cotton Bowl, his two best players (Michael Crabtree and Graham Harrell) moving on to become professionals along with several role players, but in the end he decided that his quirkiness was best suited for Lubbock. Why would he leave the closest thing there is to plug-n-play in college football.
Death, taxes and a Red Raider quarterback throwing for 4,000 yards plus are the only certainties in life anymore. This year’s participant in the “Be a Heisman candidate for a year” reality show is Taylor Potts. Potts has only seen the field in blowout situations, but is the smallest question mark on Texas Tech. His concern will be the offensive line and their ability to keep his jersey clean. Last year the line performed well until the Oklahoma game when it just got ran over consistently. No matter how quick your spread offense is at getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hand your line needs to provide a solid pocket-and that was the reason that Oklahoma played for the Championship last year and Tech did not.
The defense returns seven starters including the leading tackler from 2008, junior linebacker Brian Duncan. Duncan will anchor a unit that has one job-to get the ball into the offense’s hands.
Texas Tech will get tripped up with a really tough schedule in conference. They have four layups against non-con opponents but face Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Nebraska and Kansas once conference plays gets going. If they were to win two of those games it would be rather surprising and three would be other-worldly.
Prediction: Texas Tech 7-5 (3-5)
Baylor? They have a football team?
Well, not quite yet, but the Bears are getting better. Thanks to a breakout freshman season by quarterback Robert Griffin (who wears rocket ships for shoes) Baylor football is on the map in the densely populated Big XII South landscape.
Griffin turned in a stellar first year producing nearly 3,000 yards of total offense to go along with 28 total touchdowns by mostly improvising. With a year to get acclimated to the offense Griffin could become the best quarterback in the conference, if not the nation. Griffin’s main target will be sophomore receiver Kendall Wright. Wright was solid last year but tapered off as the season wore on. If Griffin can depend on Wright his numbers will improve and he will pick his spots to kill defenses with his legs.
The Bears are not anything special on defense, but they are serviceable. Hopefully the Penn State transfer 6’4″ defensive tackle Phil Taylor-who has never missed a meal, ever-can become a stabilizing force in the middle of a defense that just refused to get teams off the field last year. With contributions from standout linebacker Joe Pawelek and safety Jordan Lake this unit stands to improve.
A bowl invite will get the Bears off the ground and running, but Griffin is the main thing to watch this year. Think Michael Vick without all of the annoying legal problems.
Prediction: Baylor 7-5 (4-4) Fourth
It sounds like a broken record in the South, but the Oklahoma State offense may be among the best in the Big XII and nation. Quarterback Zac Robinson and receiver Dez Bryant might make for a sweet combo in the NFL, let alone college football.
Robinson is a rare combination of a runner and thrower-and he is really good at both. He rushed for 562 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2008 to go along with his 25 touchdown passes and 3,000 plus yard through the air. As he goes, so go the Cowboys. Bryant pitched in with a measly 1,480 yards and 19 touchdowns (and wasn’t even the best receiver in the division) and is looking to improve upon those numbers in 2009.
The Pokes lost tight end Brandon Petigre was a target opposite Bryant, but they return most of what was the eighth ranked rushing offense in the nation. The 1-2 punch of Kendall Hunter (1,555 yds, 16 TDs) and Keith Toston (686 yds, 9 TDs) should slice through the Big XII defenses that are not equipped to stop the run.
The big question for Oklahoma State will be on defense. Former Kansas defensive coordinator Bill Young left Miami in the offseason to return to Stillwater where he was a line coach in the 1970′s. Young had better generate some pass rush to help one of the worst and most inexperienced defensive backfields in the nation (they return only one starter).
The Cowboys have a manageable non-conference schedule opening the season with Georgia at home. That game may be the only potential slip up before a showdown with Texas on Halloween. They close the season with a trip to Norman, Oklahoma-a trip that may be for all the marbles in the Big XII South.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 10-2 (6-2) Third
Every opponent that faced Oklahoma last year certainly grew tired of hearing ‘Boomer Sooner’ all day long as the offense was darting into the end zone from every direction. It appeared that the Sooners were operating a fast-break style of football-one that had never been seen before in Major college football. They put up 62, 66, 65, 61, and 62 to close out the season last year– the most consecutive games of a team scoring 60 points or more in history. They were cruising until they faced Florida in the National Championship and only scored 14 points. Despite that setback, the Oklahoma squad should bounce back for another title run in 2009.
Yes, they lost to Texas in the 2008 version of the Red River Rivalry, and will probably lose again this year in that game, but who is to say they will not be the best one-loss team again?
Heisman winner Sam Bradford returns with his 50 touchdown passes and his 4,720 yards passing in his back pocket, but he will not have the luxury of standing behind one of the best lines football this season. Last year Bradford could sit back in the pocket and read every defense that was thrown at him with ease and confidence, but in 2009 four out of his five guardians are gone. Will they be as effective as last season where they outscored opponents 225-30 in the first quarter? That will be tough to duplicate. Sure, this is Oklahoma and they just reload, but there will be an adjustment period for the new line-and the length of that period will determine how far the Sooners can go in 2009.
Half man, half beast Gerald McCoy is one of the best defensive tackles in the nation should have a nice junior season/NFL tryout for the Sooners who will be good as always on defense.
It is almost easy to forget about the Sooner’s rushing attack which ranked 20thin the nation a year ago. Chris Brown rushed for 1,220 yards and 20 touchdowns and DeMarco Murray chipped in 1,002 yards and 14 touchdowns (not Playstation numbers, actual stats!) as a set-up for the passing game. The bottom line is that the Sooners may be able to toy with most of their opponents when they have the ball.
They should win their first four games in the non-conference before facing Baylor. But after that they face a tough two-game stretch that will define the 2009 Oklahoma Sooners. They play Texas in Dallas and then travel to Kansas the following week, which could be a letdown game no matter the outcome against the Longhorns.
Prediction: Oklahoma 11-1 (7-1) Second
Texas is mad. They were literally an inch away from playing for the national Championship last season, but Michael Crabtree wrestled it away from them as he tight-rope-walked down the sideline-and still needed to lose a three-way tie breaker to Oklahoma (their bitter rival that they beat decidedly) to end up playing in the Fiesta Bowl, instead of the BCS Title game. They are motivated and talented enough to be in a similar position this season.
However, if Colt McCoy leads the Longhorns in rushing in 2009, Texas will NOT be a contender for the National Championship. Period. McCoy is as tough as nails, but if he has to survive another onslaught from defenders down field again this year, Mack Brown might be scraping him off the field with a spatula. Fortunately for McCoy, Texas is loaded and should be able to keep him healthy with a plethora of weapons.
McCoy’s main target Jordan Shipley was granted another year of eligibility from the NCAA regarding a medical hardship from earlier in his career at Texas, which is huge for the longhorns because they did lose leading receiver QuanCosby to graduation. Sophomore Malcolm Williams showed that he is ready to step in to the hole Cosby leaves with his performance on the biggest stage against Texas Tech in 2008 (182 yds, 2 TDs). Expect a breakout year for Williams and perhaps another young receiver that will benefit from McCoy’s big-play ability.
Texas will return an experienced secondary (things change fast in college football) that got torched at times last year hoping that it will help with losing 4 of their front seven, including stud Brian Orakpo. Remember, this is Texas football-and it seems that every time Texas loses a starter there are 4 guys just waiting to step in and become the next NFL top-ten pick. The defense will not have a weakness this year making Texas the most complete team, save Florida, in the nation.
Prediction: Texas 12-0 (8-0) First
